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Energy News/Predictions

Here we publish the weekly Oil and Natural Gas market commentary and predictions that we make on the Sunday
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Mar 12 Energy News and Predictions:
 

Energy Market Insight -- Written by Alan Lammey, Friday, Mar 12, 2010

Despite an attempt by buyers to lift April gas futures higher during the morning, upside action was short-lived as traders focused squarely on growing rig counts, moderating weather and shaky domestic economic indicators. Today’s close was significant, as prices finished the day below major long-term support levels. As such, prices appear poised to test the $4.20s or lower next week.

We’re at the time of the year when there’s really nothing supportive in the gas market for bullish traders to hang their hat on. Spring has sprung in many areas, supply is plentiful, projections for another record refill season are already being talked about, so how can you get bulled-up on any of that rhetoric?

* * *

CME/Nymex April gas futures lost 4¢ to close at $4.40/MMBtu. Overnight selling in the OTC markets opened prices lower at $4.415 before some minor buying activity lifted prices to an intraday high of $4.462. In the afternoon, falling crude oil and wobbling equities send prices falling to an intraday low of $4.377. Weakness was derived from bearish technical trading, but also on fundamentals as weather models show the possibility that a short-lived cold front will mainly be confined to the Midwest and Plains.

Technical indicators for April natural gas are bearish. In fact, the 200-day moving average was $4.4057, so today's close below that area suggests even further downside. Major support is seen at $4.377, while lower level support resides at $4.03 and $3.89. Key resistance is seen at $4.46, followed by $4.626 and $4.755. If the latter is violated, the next major resistance level is $4.894, followed by $4.931, $5.05 and $5.18.

* * *

CME/Nymex April crude fell 87¢ to close at $81.24/bbl. After climbing to an intraday high of $83.16, crude futures closed negative for the first time in three sessions after an economic report showed that consumer confidence in the US unexpectedly dropped this month. The Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary consumer sentiment index dropped to 72.5 from February’s reading of 73.6. A gain to 74 was forecast. On the bullish side of the equation, the International Energy Agency raised its outlook for global oil demand this year by 70,000/bbls a day to 86.6 million barrels. That will result in a gain of 1.6 million barrels a day, or 1.8%, from 2009 levels, according the agency’s monthly report. Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund said in a recent economic forecast that the world economy will grow 3.9% in 2010, compared with its October projection of 3.1%.

Technical indicators for April crude are mixed. On the downside, key support is seen at $80.67, followed by $80.16 and $78.26, while $77.82, $77.05 and $76.32 are the next longer term major support levels. On the upside, key resistance is seen at today’s intraday high of $83.16. If violated, it would open the door for a move up to $83.65, $84.15 and ultimately $87.50 if not higher.

* * *

Cash prices fell to multi-week lows today as weekend weather and industrial demand dissipated. Next week could bring another bout of weakness as mild weather is expected to continue. Cash prices at the Henry Hub lost 12¢ to average $4.35, while Transco Station 65 lost 5¢ to average $4.35. In the northern tier markets, Transco Zone 6 New York went down 9¢ to average $4.66, while the Chicago citygates declined 8¢ to average $4.49. In the West, cash prices at Opal, Wyoming, fell 1¢ to average $4.16, while the SoCal Citygate declined 12¢ to average $4.61 and the PG&E Citygate lost 11¢ to average $4.91.

_____________________________________________________________________  

  

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 You know what is really exciting? How about a really low electricity bill? You know, natural gas prices that sets your electricity rates are at near historic lows.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Many regards,

Alan "Petrodamus" Lammey

This week IS the week to think about locking into a 24 or 36 month fixed rate electricity contract at www.StarTexPower.com (please choose 'radio' as the referral).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

  

 

  

 

  

 

  

 

  

 

  

 

  

 

  

 

  

 

  

 

  

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Energy News/Predictions